It’s November, which means we are rapidly approaching the end of the regular season in college football.
Two weeks from Saturday, the 2026 season will come to a bittersweet end, followed by conference championship weekend and then, finally, Selection Sunday for the College Football Playoff the very next day.
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With that in mind, and reading the tea leaves from the first few CFP ranking reveals, it seems as though this year may be the year we finally see a three-loss team making an appearance in the Big Dance.
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CFP trophy during the College Football Playoff press conference and media roundtable on November 19, 2022, at Banc of California Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) (Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
That sight will be much more commonplace after next year when the field expands to 24 teams, but a three-loss playoff team in the 12-team era is certainly unprecedented.
But who has the best shot of going on a run out of all of the three-loss teams logjammed in the middle of the CFP rankings?
To my eye, there are five teams sitting between 16 and 21 that have three losses as well as a legitimate shot at making the cut: Oregon, South Carolina, Ohio State, Ole Miss and LSU.
I realize there is a good chance more teams join this list, but as of right now, these seem to be the most likely candidates from the pool of three-loss teams.
I considered adding Missouri to the mix, but the Tigers have Georgia and Kentucky lurking these next two weeks, and 1-1 in that two-game stretch feels optimistic at best.
Plus, their best win is over a reeling Florida team, so I’m not sure they would have much of an argument unless they took down the Bulldogs this Saturday.
Ole Miss and LSU are both interesting cases.
The Rebels have arguably one of the best quarterbacks in college football in Trinidad Chambliss and a damn good running back in Kewan Lacy to boot.
Ole Miss also has a couple of really nice wins over LSU and the aforementioned Missouri.
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LSU is a bit more of a stretch.
As I mentioned, they lost head-to-head against the Rebels and really don’t have a great win on their resume outside of a drubbing to open the season against Clemson.
Their offense is always dangerous thanks to the play calling combo of Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr., and they have one of the most expensive rosters in college football.
One thing both of these teams have going against them, though, are very recent blowout losses to superior conference teams.
Mississippi quarterback Trinidad Chambliss passes against LSU during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Oxford, Miss., on Sept. 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
The Tigers just got done getting dominated in the fourth quarter by a surging Alabama team, and the Rebels were completely manhandled by Georgia just six days ago.
The Bulldogs look like the best team in the country, so that may be excusable, but Ole Miss also has a loss to Florida on their resume in which they were completely outclassed for the majority of the second half.
Moving on to Ohio State and South Carolina, both of these teams are dealing with some high-profile injuries.
Ohio State lost its signal caller, Julian Sayin, for the remainder of the 2026 regular season and potentially beyond.
They haven’t looked the same without him, and picked up their third loss at home against Oregon last Saturday.
Julian Sayin of the Ohio State Buckeyes walks off the field with his arm in a sling after defeating the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind., on Oct. 17, 2026. (Getty Images)
You could make an argument South Carolina is one of the hottest teams in the country, with head coach Shane Beamer going from hot seat to en fuego.
The Gamecocks are riding a four-game winning streak into the end of the season, and have a seriously impressive victory over Tennessee to pad their case.
The loss of dynamic QB Lanorris Sellers and big-play wideout Nyck Harbor changes that calculus a bit, as it’s unclear what the long-term outlook is for either of the South Carolina stars.
That leaves us with Oregon, who I believe is far and away the most dangerous three-loss team left standing.
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning stands on the field during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Southern California on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
The Ducks looked shaky early in the season, but look like a completely different team since firing their offensive coordinator in late October.
Dan Lanning’s squad put up 41 points just last weekend against a very salty Ohio State defense and seem to be peaking at the right time with Dylan Raiola leading the charge under center.
They also have a much more forgiving final stretch (Michigan, at Michigan State, and Washington) while also having impressive wins against Ohio State and likely Group of 6 playoff representative Boise State.
They’ve been able to shake off the loss of their star quarterback Dante Moore, and this was a team that was being picked by many to win the whole thing back in August.
That talent hasn’t gone anywhere, it’s just taken a while to get off the starting blocks.
Quarterback Dylan Raiola of the Oregon Ducks throws the ball in the first half against the USC Trojans at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Sept. 26, 2026, in Los Angeles, Calif. (Getty Images)
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Do I think Oregon is a shoo-in to win the whole thing? No.
I’m not even sure if they’ll be in the field come December.
But if they do manage to sneak into the CFP, they will be entering the tournament playing a blisteringly hot brand of offense that no one will want to see lining up on the other side of the field.
A three-loss team is almost guaranteed to find its way into the field of 12 this year, and if Oregon is that three-loss team, I wouldn’t count them out from making a very deep run.
