SOUTH CHINA SEA CODE OF CONDUCT
The South China Sea is expected to remain one of the summit’s most closely watched issues, with ASEAN and China facing a year-end target to conclude negotiations on a Code of Conduct for the disputed waters.
The Philippines, this year’s ASEAN chair, said on Thursday (Nov 12) that China and ASEAN have agreed on about 70 per cent of the proposed Code of Conduct, but major issues remain unresolved.
These include the proposed agreement’s scope, legal status and implementation.
Andrew of CSIS said a substantive, legally binding code was unlikely to be completed before the deadline.
“At best we may hear that talks are ‘substantially concluded’,” he said.
Joanne Lin, a senior fellow at ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, concurred, saying the agreement was unlikely to be finalised either during the summit or by the end of 2026.
International relations expert Teuku Rezasyah from the University of Padjadjaran stressed the need to accelerate negotiations, particularly amid what he described as China’s growing willingness to assert its maritime claims.
He called on ASEAN to speed up finalising the Code of Conduct, which has been decades in the making, warning that China was increasingly ready to “flex its muscle”.
China claims sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, overlapping with claims by several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.
Indonesia is not a claimant state in the main territorial disputes, but Chinese fishing and coast guard activities have also generated tensions in waters around Indonesia’s North Natuna Sea.
The disputes have long tested ASEAN’s ability to present a united position while maintaining relations with Beijing, the region’s largest trading partner.
