KUALA LUMPUR: Melaka voters heading to the polls on Saturday (Nov 14) will be faced with familiar choices and alliances based on past winning formulas.
Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) will again contest this election in an official pact, closing ranks once more to avoid splitting the Malay-Muslim vote.
In a similar alliance, both coalitions won the Negeri Sembilan polls on Aug 1 convincingly, despite being on different sides of the aisle at the federal level.
Observers say that the pact is once again likely to consolidate the crucial Malay vote at the expense of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, which has been facing growing voter disenchantment.
But PH is also testing an informal alliance with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) for the first time since Bersatu pulled out of PH in 2020, in hopes that Bersatu could still capture some Malay votes. Bersatu was a key PH component when the coalition defeated BN in the 2018 general election.
During the previous Melaka state election in 2021, BN secured 21 seats, whereas PH obtained five seats and PN claimed two.
To form the government in Melaka, parties need to win 15 of the 28 seats in the state legislative assembly.
Close to 700,000 voters will pick from 79 candidates vying for the 28 seats – comprising straight fights in 11 constituencies, 11 three-cornered contests, and six four-cornered contests.
PH will contest in 24 seats, while Malay-led political party Bersatu has fielded candidates in seven seats.
BN, Anwar’s partner in the federal unity government, will contest 23 seats in a partnership with PN, which will contest the remaining five seats.
Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) – a splinter party of Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) – will contest 16 seats in Melaka.
Another convincing victory in Melaka for BN-PN could see the pact push harder for an early general election, in hope of sustaining its political momentum.
Malaysia’s next general election must be held by February 2028.
Anwar, however, has no incentive to dissolve parliament early when his coalition is facing challenges, said analysts.
Driven by the consolidation of Malay votes, high morale in the campaign machinery and strong approval of the state government, the BN – PN alliance holds a commanding lead in 24 seats, according to reputable pollster ILHAM Centre on Friday.
PH remains safe only in two seats, while another two seats would be closely contested, it added.
“The BN – PN narrative is anchored in identity politics that resonates strongly with the Malay electorate,” it said in a statement.
Political analyst James Chin said in a Facebook post on Thursday that he expects the “Malay tsunami” of BN-PN to win at least 24 of the 28 seats in Melaka.
“Bro Anwar (is) in big trouble,” he wrote.
