XRP hovered near $1.29 on Monday as shrinking large-investor wallets and rising exchange holdings deepened concerns that the cryptocurrency’s month-long sell-off could resume.
The token has lost roughly 17% over the past month, despite a record number of addresses holding XRP. Santiment figures show wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens falling from 351 to 339.
Analyst Ali Martinez warns that a sustained break below $1.26 could open a path towards $1.11 and eventually $0.98. The question is whether retreating whales will outweigh growing participation elsewhere on the network.
XRP price today: Shrinking whale wallets intensify selling concerns
The decline in large XRP wallets suggests some substantial holders are reducing exposure rather than buying into weakness.
“That decline raises the possibility of growing selling pressure,” Martinez said in an October 25 post.
The figures measure wallet addresses, not individual investors. One holder can control multiple addresses, while a wallet leaving this category might simply have moved tokens elsewhere.
Still, exchange data adds to the unease. Holdings on trading platforms rose from approximately 11.003 billion to 11.05 billion XRP, an increase of about 47 million tokens.
Moving cryptocurrencies onto exchanges can precede selling, although deposits may also reflect transfers between custodians or trading activity rather than completed disposals.
The distinction matters because XRP is already struggling to recover lost ground. Without renewed demand from large buyers, even modest additional supply could test a market whose momentum remains weak.
Institutional flows offer limited comfort. BeInCrypto reported that spot XRP exchange-traded funds attracted only $18.5 million over four weeks, compared with $75.6 million in one September week.
Why losing $1.26 could expose XRP to $0.98
Martinez’s warning centres on a declining price channel that has guided XRP since August. He identifies $1.26 as its lower boundary, leaving little protection beneath Monday’s price.
XRP briefly dipped below that level on October 24 but recovered. A fleeting move is different from a sustained breakdown that confirms sellers have taken control.
If support fails decisively, Martinez sees $1.11 as the first downside target, followed by $0.98. The latter would represent a decline of roughly 22% from $1.26, rather than a forecast of an unavoidable crash.
Exchange flows explain why traders are paying attention. CryptoQuant data showed 6.05 billion XRP entering exchanges in the 30 days to October 19, the highest total in seven months. Those gross inflows should not be confused with the much smaller rise in exchange balances.
Meanwhile, the 90-day moving average of large XRP withdrawals from Binance dropped to $49.7 million, its lowest level in five years, according to CryptoQuant data analysed by Darkfost.
“From a long-term perspective, this suggests XRP could lack buying volume without whale support,” on-chain analyst Darkfost wrote in an analysis published on CryptoQuant.
Record holders offer hope if XRP reclaims $1.40
The bearish outlook faces a counterargument. Santiment reported on October 22 that the XRP Ledger had reached a record 8.24 million non-empty wallets.
Daily network growth also reached 4,772 new addresses, its fifth-largest spike since March.
The numbers suggest interest in the ledger, but wallets are not necessarily distinct investors or evidence of buying.
A sustained move above resistance, with 4,000 or more new wallets daily, could support a recovery towards $1.50, the firm said.
Ripple’s Swell conference in New York from October 27 to 29 offers another catalyst. Partnership or institutional adoption news could improve sentiment, but announcements would not necessarily reverse the price trend.
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