Markets opened with a spring in their step this week, only to finish flat on their backs again.
Oil took the first hit as hopes of an end to the war in Iran sent barrel prices tumbling from around US$100 to below US$90 for the first time since August…that’s before President Donald Trump grabbed the brake lever on Thursday, shouting “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed.”
The orange leader of the free world continued, stating that the US had hundreds of billions of dollars of frozen overseas Iranian regime money and that the US in fact controlled the Strait. The Brent price suggested otherwise, bouncing back to almost US$96 in a serious rollercoaster of a week.
Inflation fears were quick to follow as hot US cost-of-living data mixed with oil had the punters betting on a December Fed rate hike, leaving bond yields uncomfortably close to five per cent and the US dollar surging once again. Gold, in turn, handed last week’s rally straight back, slipping below US$4000 and shedding nearly three per cent overnight to around US$3880.
Bad news flowing from the Middle East left AI as the last shiny hope and for a few days, Wall Street delivered. Fresh from last week’s US$3.2 trillion rout, tech roared back.
Then Jensen Huang’s wandering eyes got involved.
Nvidia’s chief admitted an extramarital affair with a woman suspected of being a Chinese spy, prompting the board to investigate whether he had been the “target of a foreign intelligence effort”. Reports linked the woman to Megaspeed, Nvidia’s biggest Southeast Asian customer, which was already accused of “chip smuggling.”
The world’s biggest company proceeded to shed more than US$427 billion (A$627 billion) in two sessions – the most expensive affair since Helen of Troy.
Then came Wednesday night’s twist: The New York Times reported a second alleged affair, this time with a senior Nvidia executive, while The Wall Street Journal said the board was preparing to show him the door. By Thursday, a reported third dalliance had emerged, and shares in the world’s biggest company were down 20 per cent in a little over a week… oooft.
Back home, everyday Australians continue to feel the hurt, with consumer sentiment at a four-year low, rates at an 18-year high and mortgage holders’ mood plunging alongside their housing prices. And the reward for all that government-induced inflation? A parade of praise for Dr Jim Chalmers. With calls for his resignation growing louder, Labour lined up to slap him on the back. Albo declared the Treasurer was “doing a great job” – at raising revenues – and that he wanted him by his side.
Standing by your man is a fine quality in a mate, but not when it’s at the cost of tens of millions of people across the country, I’d wager.
Meanwhile, Usman Khawaja was busy standing by his Australian cricketing brethren in a different way this week. Waiting beside them at the bus stop to throw his old teammates under the wheels, it seems, for a more personal form of revenue raising in his latest autobiography. His claim that ‘Sandpapergate’ went well beyond the three players who were banned was a great way to honour the Baggy Green, with his dirty gossip rag – biography – set to hit shelves just in time for Christmas.
Finally, the market mayhem week looked like it might come to an end, only for Australians to wake Friday morning to Microsoft’s entire office offering on the fritz, with Outlook and Teams remaining down throughout the business day.
Business was at a standstill, with nowhere more evident than the market overlords down at the ASX, who certainly didn’t have the answers. Outlook’s outage sent the ASX’s archaic system scrambling, as a grand total of just 180 announcements made it out on Friday, a fraction of the usual 550ish daily haul.
Last week it was fridges frying; this week it’s Outlook dying – and the consequences of a major technology outage are flooding across the market. The ASX was again down another one per cent on Friday’s reduced traffic, which left this week’s Runners paddling against the current. Not a single stock managed to crack the 100 per cent gain mark, although with the small-cap tide running so rough, staying afloat for our four Runners this week counts for something.
G8 EDUCATION LIMITED (ASX: GEM)
Up 95% (10.5c – 20.5c)
Bulls N’ Bears Runner of the Week is G8 Education, after the childcare heavyweight landed a $196.7 million takeover proposal at 26c per share from Melbourne investment manager Majority Capital Partners, sending its battered share price soaring.
The non-binding offer represented a whopping 160 per cent premium to G8’s previous close of 10 cents, putting a very different value on a business the market had been treating like yesterday’s lunch.
Majority Capital has lined up bank and equity commitment letters covering the full consideration, while G8 has signed a process deed giving the suitor up to six weeks of exclusivity to complete due diligence and negotiate a binding deal.
G8 says it operates more than 350 early learning and childcare centres across Australia under a stable of established brands, making it one of the country’s biggest providers of early childhood education and care.
The business has been operating in a tough environment, with cost pressures, staffing challenges and regulatory scrutiny weighing on the childcare sector.
The approach is also part of a broader takeover stir in the education sector. Just a day earlier, international education provider IDP Education revealed it had received a revised $3-a-share proposal from private equity giant Blackstone, valuing the business at about $834 million.
Blackstone had previously tabled offers of $2.30 and $2.50 a share, both rejected, before returning with a 20 per cent sweeter bid as IDP shares continued to languish. The two approaches in as many days suggest private equity is sniffing around a sector that public markets have perhaps punished too heavily.
CLARITY PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED (ASX: CU6)
Up 57% ($1.50 – $2.35)
Slotting into second and scoring a major regulatory win this week was Clarity Pharmaceuticals, after the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted the Aussie hopeful “Breakthrough Therapy “ status for its copper-64 imaging agent, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA, used to detect post-treatment prostate cancer.
The technology helps doctors find recurring cancer, even when conventional scans struggle to show exactly where it is hiding. It works by seeking out a protein commonly found on prostate cancer cells, effectively lighting them up so they can be spotted on a PET scan.
The scan is particularly important for men whose blood tests show rising levels of PSA, a protein that can signal prostate cancer has returned, sometimes before doctors can pinpoint the location of the disease.
The FDA designation is a significant regulatory leg-up and gives Clarity closer access to senior FDA officials, more intensive guidance and a potentially faster pathway through the development and review process. It is also the first time the agency has granted Breakthrough Therapy status to a PSMA-based PET imaging agent.
The clinical numbers are also turning heads. In the Co-PSMA study, Clarity’s imaging agent detected cancer in 78 per cent of patients, compared with just 36 per cent using an existing gallium-68 imaging agent in the same patient group. In other words, it found cancer in more than twice as many patients, potentially giving doctors a much better picture of where the disease has returned and how best to treat it.
Clarity now has two major Phase III trials, AMPLIFY and CLARIFY, fully recruited, with patients being monitored ahead of topline results expected in the first half of next year, suggesting the 57 per cent jump on this week’s news could be just the start of a very busy financial year to come.
CARNEGIE CLEAN ENERGY LIMITED (ASX: CCE)
Up 57% (14c – 22c)
Carnegie Clean Energy surfed a hefty share-price wave this week, climbing 57 per cent on no news to the market whatsoever.
It seems the company’s next-generation CETO wave energy technology and its looming offshore demonstration in Spain may have been the ticket. Carnegie released a detailed presentation, setting out how it plans to prove its wave energy technology can make the leap from promising engineering concept to commercially viable power generation business.
The CETO demonstrator is destined for the Biscay Marine Energy Platform off Spain’s Basque coast. Unlike conventional wave-energy devices bobbing around on the ocean surface, CETO operates fully submerged, using the movement of an underwater buoy driven by passing waves to power a system that converts that motion into electricity. Keeping the machinery below the surface is designed to improve storm survivability, reduce visual impact and sidestep some of the community opposition that has dogged offshore wind projects.
‘ACHIEVE’ is intended to test six key parts of the technology in real ocean conditions, from energy capture and AI-enabled control systems to extreme-weather survivability, reliability and maintenance.
The company says CETO’s modular design should make it easier to manufacture, transport and install using existing industrial supply chains and smaller vessels.
Carnegie says it is targeting commercial capacity factors of 30 to 50 per cent at suitable wave-energy sites, alongside forecast energy density of 30MW per square kilometre – five times the typical figure cited for offshore wind.
With shares surging this week, Carnegie has plenty of wind in its sails. The ACHIEVE demonstration is the next big test, with European backing already secured and a much larger 6MW CETO array on the drawing board.
Capability X Limited (ASX: CX8)
up 55% (20c – 31c)
Rounding out our Runners was AI-driven industrial safety developer Capability X, after the newcomer made a cracking ASX debut this week, surging as much as 55 per cent above its 20-cent IPO price to hit 31 cents on Thursday.
The $12 million float arrived as investors grow increasingly choosy about AI valuations; however, Capability X is offering something more tangible than another chatbot with billion-dollar dreams – technology already working in industrial environments, backed by paying customers and recurring contracts.
Its platform combines cameras, laser sensors, lidar and proprietary AI software to build a real-time, three-dimensional picture of busy industrial sites.
The company says it identifies workers, vehicles and machinery, tracks their movements and flags dangerous interactions before they turn into accidents. Rather than simply recording incidents, the system is designed to spot trouble brewing and alert operators before someone gets hurt.
The technology has already attracted customers across marine, ports, logistics and offshore operations. ASX-listed Bhagwan Marine has signed a multi-year agreement, logistics heavyweight Qube Ports has committed to a three-year rollout of CX Protect and offshore operator GO Offshore has also adopted its safety systems. Multi-year hardware and software leases provide a recurring revenue stream rather than relying on one-off equipment sales.
Beyond workplace safety, the platform could help industrial operators lift productivity, reduce downtime and operating costs, with mining and defence offering obvious expansion opportunities as remote operations become increasingly important.
With solid revenues and a growing suite of customers already under its belt, Capability X is looking to take its industrial AI platform into a much bigger arena. In a world drowning in AI promises, this tech looks to be already earning its keep.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@wanews.com.au
