Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford now appear to be locked into a heated, two-person matchup in Toronto’s mayoral race, after Chris Alexander dropped out mere hours before he was set to join them in a major candidate debate.
A head-to-head battle between the two has been brewing for weeks, as no other clear front-runners have managed to break through to voters, according to recent polling.
Alexander leaving the campaign trail “gives a bit more of a clear distinction to voters and changes some of the dynamics between Bradford and Chow,” said Zachary Spicer, an associate professor in the school of public policy and administration at York University.
Alexander announced the revocation of his candidacy the morning of Oct 6. The debate held that evening at Toronto Metropolitan University resulted in an unexpected face-off between only Bradford and Chow that saw the two be more pointed in their criticisms of each other. Those changes could indicate a possible reshaping of the campaign period in the final weeks before election day, according to political analysts.
Low polling made it difficult to see a path to victory, which resulted in the decision to exit the campaign, Alexander told reporters Tuesday.
“Our path to success, it became clear to me over this weekend, was not obvious and perhaps not there at all,” he told reporters.
Alexander conceded that polls indicate support for him has remained static since the onset of the campaign and he wanted to step back before advanced voting got underway.
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Myer Siemiatycki, a professor emeritus of politics and public administration at Toronto Metropolitan University, said Alexander “just could not get the traction he needed to be a serious contender.”
A Liaison Strategies poll published Tuesday, prior to Alexander dropping out, had placed him at nine per cent support, while Chow reached 48 per cent and Bradford at 40 per cent.
Alexander is best known for being a key member of then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s cabinet as the federal immigration minister from 2013 to 2015. Yet Alexander’s policy proposals during the campaign period seemed somewhat closer on the political spectrum to Chow, who was previously a long-time NDP MP. He proposed increasing arts funding to $62 million over ten years— higher than Chow’s proposal of $35 million.
On Tuesday night’s debate stage, the remaining candidates were questioned on how they would approach the housing crisis, increased affordability, transit and public safety.
Chow was noticeably more confrontational during the debate toward Bradford than in previous weeks, said Spicer.
When discussing transit and cycling, Chow accused Bradford of previously supporting fare increases and supporting Premier Doug Ford in his bid to rip out the city’s bike lanes. “How could anyone trust you?” she said.
Bradford replied that Chow was “fearmongering.”
With Bradford now positioning himself as the sole candidate who has a shot at challenging Chow, she will have to be more aggressive in the coming weeks if she wants to hang on to the mayorship, Spicer explained.
“Chow realizes the challenge without Chris Alexander it’s a little bit different…it’s now more of an evaluation of her first term,” he said. Bradford does not need to win on every policy point, but he does needs to make the case the city is heading in the “wrong direction,” to win, which isn’t difficult to hammer home for some groups, said Spicer.
In turn, Chow needs to depict Bradford as a risk for the city while highlighting her accomplishments, he said.
However, there is uncertainty about which candidate Alexander’s supporters will choose now that he is no longer an option, said Siemiatycki.
“This could be very good news for Brad Bradford because, like Bradford, Alexander’s campaign was predicated on time for a change,” he said. “People who were turning to Chris Alexander for that reason, you might think, might be inclined to transfer over to Brad Bradford,” he said.
But Siemiatycki pointed out that a simple voter switch to Bradford might not play out. Polling has shown that “a lot of Torontonians rank [Bradford] as unpopular,” he said.
“There is this kind of discomfort that Torontonians are conveying to pollsters about how they feel about Bradford’s political persona, style etcetera, and that could lead some of Alexander’s supporters to go with Olivia Chow,” he said. “His votes are up for grabs.”
However, as Alexander dropped out fairly late in the race, his name will still be on the ballot. Siemiatycki warns that many people aren’t following the race closely and might not be aware that Alexander has stepped aside.
“What we know for certain is we’ve got a heavyweight final bought ahead of us for the next two weeks plus. That should generate increased public attention and maybe even higher voter turnout than usual,” he said.
With files from The Canadian Press.
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