The last super El Nino, from 2015 to 2016, triggered drought, floods and crop failures, among other things, that affected at least 60 million people worldwide. It also caused an estimated US$3.9 trillion in economic losses.
Another super El Nino will cost trillions, Loh envisaged. Estimates of “a few trillion” could be “an underestimate”, he said, as the losses can extend beyond direct damage.
Second-order effects, for example, will be felt by manufacturers that rely on farm produce.
Across the region, governments are managing reservoir levels, improving irrigation, distributing water pumps, encouraging farmers to grow drought-tolerant crops and stepping up wildfire prevention.
Erma Yulihastin, a climatology professor at Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency, pointed out that scientists had warned of an “unusual El Nino” since the start of the year and had urged “early action”.
