Secret votes, coloured ballot papers, straw polls and backroom efforts to force a consensus — with the threat of powerful vetoes hanging over it all. These could be the contours of how boards of mubil-billion dollar corporations decide on contentious issues.
It’s also the way the United Nations picks its secretary-general, the person at the apex of a vast and sprawling machinery tasked with upholding fast-fraying international laws and practices.
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That process is now barrelling towards a tense climax, with the UN Security Council holding multiple straw polls in a bid to select its new secretary-general by December 31, when incumbent Antonio Guterres must step down.
Eight candidates are in the fray — from Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan, the head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, the organisation’s trade body, and Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to Lana Nusseibeh, the United Arab Emirates minister of state for foreign affairs.
The UNSC recommends a candidate who gets nine votes without a veto from its five permanent members. The process ends after the UN General Assembly (UNGA) gives its seal of approval to that candidate.
Here’s what we know:
Who chooses the secretary-general?
In effect, the 15-member UNSC chooses the UN chief.
The council has five permanent members – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States – who hold veto power.
Ten elected non-permanent members also make up the council. Bahrain, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Denmark, Greece, Latvia, Liberia, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia are the current UNSC members — non permanent members are elected by rotation every two years.
According to Article 97 of the UN Charter, the UNSC decides on a candidate and recommends them to the UNGA for a vote by all members.
There has never been a time when the council has picked a candidate who was voted down by the assembly, meaning that while, in theory, everyone has a say, the assembly have never gone against the 15-member security council. And because the five permanent members wield a veto, the secretary-general in effect is chosen by them, once they’ve convinced the non-permanent members.
However, one time, in 1950, the UNGA voted to extend the term of the then secretary-general without the UNSC’s recommendation after a deadlock in the council.
How does the Security Council make its choice?
The council holds informal, anonymous polls, also known as straw polls, on whether the members “encourage”, “discourage”, or “have no opinion” about a candidate.
Although it is expected to be secret, the number of encourage, discourage, or no-opinion votes is often leaked.
In later rounds of voting, coloured paper ballots are used to distinguish between the UNSC’s permanent members and the 10 elected members, providing a clearer sense of where members are leaning.
Once a straw poll confirms that a candidate has at least nine “encourage” votes and no vetoes against them, the council holds a formal vote to recommend them to the UNGA, which is expected to endorse that nomination.
Jane Kinninmont, CEO of United Nations Association UK, an independent, non-governmental organisation, explained that the process to select a candidate has traditionally been “closed and secretive” but has become more open as a result of campaigning by civil society groups and member states.
“However, the Security Council continues to guard its secrecy tightly – part of a political culture that many other countries regard as outmoded,” Kinninmont told Al Jazeera.
“One of the stated reasons is that no country wants to have a situation where it votes for one candidate, but another candidate actually is appointed and resents them for not voting for them,” she said.
Al Jazeera’s UN correspondent, Gabriel Elizondo, also explained that the secrecy behind the selection was just due to the way the system was set up.
“Now, there have been some talks in recent years, including this year, about trying to make the process more transparent in the Security Council, but the five permanent members just want to keep it the way that it is,” he said.
Who are the candidates this year?
Eight candidates are currently running to become secretary-general, after some dropped out earlier in the race.
Two leading candidates are IAEA chief Grossi from Argentina and Costa Rican Rebeca Grynspan, the UNCTAD head.
Grynspan, who, if successful, could become the first woman and first Jewish person to lead the UN, played a key role in brokering the Black Sea Grain Initiative between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. The deal allowed for millions of tonnes of food to be exported from war-torn Ukraine, much of which went to developing nations.
Grossi has headed the UN nuclear agency since 2019, and has been at the centre of the UN’s efforts to prevent nuclear escalations between Russia and Ukraine, amid their ongoing war. But Grossi has also faced criticism, especially from Iran, over perceptions that some of his reports critiquing Tehran’s nuclear programme helped serve as pretext that the US and Israel used to attack Iran.
The other candidates include:
- Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garces (Former UNGA chief, Ecuador)
- Lana Zaki Nusseibeh (UAE minister of state at the Foreign Ministry )
- Feridun Hadi Sinirlioglu (Organization for Security and Co-operation chief, Turkiye)
- Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (Guyana’s ambassador to the UN)
- Ivonne A-Baki (Politician, Ecuador)
- Olara Otunnu (Politician, Uganda)
What’s happened in the 2026 straw polls so far?
Eight polls have been held so far, but no consensus has emerged on a candidate who has received no discouraging votes.
According to the 1 for 8 Billion campaign, supported by organisations and individuals worldwide to call for a fair, open, and inclusive selection process for Guterres’s job, the eighth poll had Grynspan leading.
Last week’s poll saw Grynspan receive 12 encourage votes and three discourage votes.
In second place, Grossi received nine encourage votes, four discourage votes, and two no-opinion votes. He was followed by Birkett, who received eight encourage votes, five discourage votes, and two no-opinion votes.
While it is unclear how the permanent members voted and whether any had used a veto, candidates need zero discourage votes from them to secure the nomination.
According to Kinninmont, there is “growing resentment” about the five permanent members of the council using their vetoes that have often led to a paralysed council.
“The appointment of the SG is a different issue from any single conflict, but ultimately this person is supposed to be the world’s leading defender of the UN Charter and a spokesperson for the peoples of the world, in whose name the charter is written,” she said.
“Thus, it seems hard to defend the idea that any single power should be able to veto a candidate even if that candidate has the support of the majority of other countries on the Security Council and indeed a majority of the countries in the world.”
On more powers for the General Assembly in the selection process, Elizondo said that while there is talk of reforming the system, it would mean the permanent members would have to give up some of their power.
“None of them want to give up their power because, essentially, the truth is, while the United Nations is made up of 193 member states, it’s really the five permanent members (the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK) that really have the overwhelming amount of power to select who the next Secretary General is,” he said.
What happens if no one is picked by December 31?
It’s unclear.
There is nothing in the UN Charter about what happens if no candidate is picked before Guterres’s term ends.
The UNSC has some options if it is struggling to decide on a pick, including recommending a candidate for a shorter term or compromising on a candidate, as it did in 1996 to select Kofi Annan after a deadlock.
Member states could also let a senior UN official oversee operations in the meantime.
According to Elizondo, Guterres has also been asked if he would stay on if no secretary-general was selected.
“He gives a pretty noncommittal answer. He says as of January 1, he hopes to be and expects to be back home in Portugal. What would happen? Nobody knows because that’s never happened before,” Elizondo said.
Kinninmont said one way of achieving a more “transparent and democratic process” in selecting a candidate could be for the Security Council to agree on two or three candidates and the General Assembly to vote on those.
