Early results emerging from Russia’s first parliamentary elections since the launch of the full-fledged war on Ukraine show President Vladimir Putin’s party dominating the vote — an outcome widely predicted.
The election, which began on Friday and ended on Sunday to elect members of the lower house of parliament, the State Duma, is projected to see Putin’s United Russia maintain its hold amid a tightly controlled election in which opposition to the president’s policies remains limited.
Despite the lack of alternatives to United Russia, the Kremlin had positioned the vote as a chance for residents to have their say since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and amid economic hardship.
Most antiwar candidates have been barred from the ballot. Those who did run from the liberal Yabloko party said they feared for their freedom after two senior party figures were handed long jail terms before the election due to comments made about the Russia-Ukraine war.
Still, Yabloko’s leader, Nikolai Rybakov, demonstrably spoiled his ballot paper, writing his party’s name and the slogan “For peace”.
Here’s what we know:
What have early results shown?
The state news agency TASS reported on Monday that 90.43 percent of ballots had been counted, according to data from the Central Election Commission (CEC).
The CEC found that, as of Sunday night, voter turnout stood just below 57 percent.
United Russia led with 57.86 percent of the vote, with 225 deputies apportioned from party lists. In single-seat races, another 225 lawmakers will be chosen, and Putin’s party is also projected to win most of them.
So far, no surprises or upsets have been recorded.
TASS also reported, citing the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media, that more than 3.6 million people voted online.
Those voting included residents of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow illegally annexed in 2022 – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia – as well as those in Crimea, which was taken in 2014. The United Nations and most of the world do not recognise Crimea and other occupied Ukrainian regions as part of Russia.
How have other parties fared?
Other parties, like the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), the ultranationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), New People and A Just Russia, all of which largely vote the same way as United Russia in parliament, trailed behind in the early election results but were still on course to win seats in the State Duma.
The vote breakdown showed the CPRF at 13.84 percent, the LDPR at 8.9 percent, New People at 7.94 percent, and A Just Russia at 4.95 percent, according to TASS.
But while the early results paint a predictable outcome, the Berlin-based think tank NEST, cofounded by Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky, said the vote could produce awkward moments for the Kremlin at a time of economic strain.
NEST said the votes received by the CPRF and New People might in many cases amount to a silent protest against Putin and United Russia — even if these parties do not actually challenge the president on most issues.
“The consequences of the war are increasingly being felt within the country, and accumulated anxiety and frustration may translate into votes for the systemic opposition parties that the Kremlin has allowed to remain on the ballot,” it said in a note.
What were previous outcomes and when are final results expected?
During the 2021 State Duma elections, United Russia kept an absolute majority in the 450-seat lower house, holding 326 seats.
The CPRF was the second-largest party, winning 57 seats. It has remained a major force in Russian politics since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The CEC will announce preliminary results and turnout on Monday, but the final results are unlikely before Friday, by which time all ballots are likely to be counted and other procedures required by law are completed, TASS reported.
What has Ukraine said on the Russian election?
Ukraine had denounced the election, which involved voters from the annexed regions, with officials calling it illegal.
Moscow accused Ukraine of attempting to sabotage the election after a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks targeted Moscow and other regions on Sunday, which TASS called the biggest of its kind since the war began in February 2022.
The attacks killed three people in the Moscow region and two in the Russian-held part of Kherson, including an election official, according to the regional governor and the election commission.
Moreover, a facility at Moscow’s oil refinery, which has been targeted before, was also damaged.
On Monday morning, a man was killed and three others were wounded in a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Bryansk region, according to acting Governor Yegor Kovalchuk.
