A new poll suggests the Parti Québécois’ pledge to hold a sovereignty referendum in its first mandate cost the party a majority government as Quebec politicians draw competing lessons from a referendum in Alberta.
The Léger survey for Le Journal de Montréal, conducted after the Oct. 5 election, found the PQ would have received 35 per cent of the vote if it had not promised to hold a referendum.
That is seven percentage points higher than the 28 per cent of the vote the party received in the election and, according to the poll, would have been enough to secure a majority government.
Instead, the PQ will enter the next legislature with a minority government.
“I think seeing this new poll just confirms what many people thought,” said Daniel Béland, political sociologist and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada.
The same poll found just 20 per cent of respondents favour the PQ organizing a referendum during its first mandate.
“This idea of a third referendum is just not popular. It’s actually very unpopular, and even after this victory of the PQ, there is no change here,” Béland said.
The poll comes as Quebec politicians debate what lessons should be drawn from Monday night’s referendum results in Alberta, where about three-quarters of voters opted for the province to remain in Canada, rejecting a proposal for a future referendum on separation.
Albertans also voted for their province to negotiate changes to the Constitution to secure more powers from the federal government.
Premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said Tuesday the results show cracks in the Canadian federation and suggested provinces could work together to gain more powers from Ottawa.
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The PQ leader wrote on social media that Albertans had proven “there is nothing to fear from expressing one’s views through a referendum.”
“The message they are sending to Ottawa could not be clearer: Canada, as it stands, is not working, and the status quo is no longer acceptable,” St-Pierre Plamondon said.
“Like Quebecers, they see the Canadian federation as a straitjacket that prevents them from placing their priorities at the heart of their own public policies, in order to meet their own needs.”
St-Pierre Plamondon said Quebec, under the Coalition Avenir Québec government, had already tried and failed to get more autonomy from Ottawa. He said his predecessors’ approach “only led to rejections and setbacks for Quebec” and accused the federal government of becoming increasingly interventionist.
The PQ leader has promised Quebecers a third referendum on independence after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves the White House.
St-Pierre Plamondon said he sees common cause with Alberta and promised to collaborate with other provinces “that come to the same conclusion as Quebec and Albertans: change is needed.”
But Quebec’s opposition parties said the Alberta results should instead prompt St-Pierre Plamondon to abandon his referendum pledge.
Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime said Quebecers should align themselves with Alberta to secure a balance of power in the federation, but said he does not support secession.
He urged St-Pierre Plamondon to drop his promise to hold a referendum on independence.
Liberal Leader Charles Milliard made the same request, saying the Canadian federation remains the best option for Quebec.
“The results reflect a desire to unite and work to build Canada rather than divide it,” Milliard said. “Canada is the envy of the world.”
The new Quebec poll is also providing ammunition to the Liberals as they prepare to serve as the official Opposition.
Milliard received a warm welcome Tuesday as his party held its first official meeting as a sworn-in caucus.
“We’re going to have a strong official Opposition,” he said.
Liberal MNA Michel Leblanc said Quebecers will see in the coming months and years how central a referendum is to the PQ’s agenda and how it could affect Quebec’s relationship with the rest of Canada.
“Quebecers don’t want a referendum. The PQ wants one, and it will cost them,” Leblanc said.
A minority government typically lasts 18 to 24 months, and the Liberals are already looking ahead to the next election.
“We’ll make sure to be ready for the next rendez-vous électoral,” Milliard said.
Béland said the polling should also give the PQ pause over its commitment to a referendum deadline.
“This poll and other polls should give them pause about emphasizing the referendum with a hard deadline,” he said.
St-Pierre Plamondon is set to officially become premier Wednesday when he and his cabinet are formally sworn into office.
