Brent and WTI- YTD
“We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we’ve got their Strait!” Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Thursday’s moves come as oil prices have been under pressure after comments from Trump following the U.S. midterm elections eased fears of further strikes on Iran. WTI is down 16% in November, and Brent has lost 20%.
Trump said Sunday that fresh attacks were highly unlikely as talks to end the conflict progressed, despite both countries reporting that shipping had been hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz. He also said further military action did not appear necessary “at this point,” easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to Middle East oil supplies.
John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said investors may have been too quick to price in an end to the fighting.
“The market may have gotten ahead of itself on pricing in a cessation of hostilities,” Kilduff told CNBC. He warned that renewed doubts about a deal would push the security premium in oil prices higher.
Trump’s assertion that the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz could spur further Iranian attacks on shipping, increasing the risk of prolonged supply disruptions, according to Kilduff.
“The President may be thinking that given enough time, the economic blockade of Iran will force them to either negotiate with the USA or result in a regime change as the Iranian economy collapses. The Iranians might have different ideas and continue to attack Middle East Infrastructure that results in higher prices and forces the President to the negotiating table,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
“In any event, it does not seem to me that either side’s negotiating position has changed. Iran wants the blockade to end, sanctions to be lifted and a ceasefire including Lebanon to be declared. The USA wants Iran to get rid of its entire nuclear stockpile and allow free transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.
—CNBC’s Pippa Stevens contributed to the report.
