Last-minute super PAC money is cascading into House and Senate battlegrounds. Some mail ballots are already on their way to voters. Heck, President Trump is spending this evening campaigning in a swing state.
The midterms are here. And tonight, we’re going to break down the state of the race.
With less than seven weeks to go, the ambient political environment — the vibes, if you will — are not great for Republicans. Amid persistent inflation, an unpopular war and low presidential approval ratings, The Times’s Nate Cohn sees comparisons to the “blue wave” of 2018, which delivered control of the House back to Democrats.
Strategists and elected officials in both parties see control of the House as Democrats’ to lose. Control of the Senate remains something of a tossup.
Republicans have found themselves playing defense in places they’re not used to worrying about (like Kansas, which we looked at Monday). But the specifics of this year’s contested races — including the fact that so many are happening in red states — may yet buoy Republicans.
If I had to boil the midterms down to a single question, it would be this: Will the bad vibes for Republicans overwhelm their structural advantages?
Here’s what to know.
The numbers
A poll released yesterday by The Times and Siena University tells the story of what’s going well for Democrats right now. It found that likely voters favored Democratic candidates over Republican ones by 9 percentage points in their congressional districts — and that the president’s approval rating is mired at 38 percent.
There are a few more findings that illustrate how Republicans grew so vulnerable.
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Trump has lost the public’s trust on the economy, which is the issue that propelled him back to office in 2024. Only 28 percent of voters said they approved of how Trump has managed matters related to affordability. And even his most loyal supporters — white voters without college degrees — disapprove of his handling of cost of living.
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The Iran War is unpopular. Seventy-seven percent of independents disapprove of Trump’s handling of it, as do nearly a quarter of people who said they voted for Trump in 2024.
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It’s not just Trump. The poll found that voters see Republicans broadly as more extreme, more elitist and more corrupt than Democrats.
The map
Democrats always knew they were going to face a daunting Senate map this fall. To win control, they need to flip four seats currently held by Republicans, while maintaining their hold on seats in two states that Trump won in 2024: Georgia and Michigan.
That Senate control is even up for grabs — and that the battleground map is as broad as it is — reflects the stiff headwinds against Republicans I’ve just laid out. But clinching it will require Democrats to muscle through in states where Republicans hold plenty of advantages.
Think of the races as falling into four different buckets.
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The purple states leaning toward Democrats: Party leaders are increasingly confident that Senator Jon Ossoff, a Georgia Democrat, will hold onto his seat in the face of a challenge from Representative Mike Collins. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper has maintained a consistent polling lead over Michael Whatley, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee.
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The red states becoming battlegrounds: Democratic candidates are posting significant fund-raising hauls and strong polling numbers in Ohio, Texas, Alaska and Iowa, which is forcing Republicans to spend heavily to defend their seats in all four states. There’s also an independent candidate mounting a serious challenge in Nebraska.
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The seats Republicans want to flip: Strong Republican recruitment has turned the Senate race in New Hampshire, where the Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, into what many observers consider a tossup. In Michigan, Republicans hope voters will see Dr. Abdul El-Sayed as too liberal for the swing state.
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And there’s Maine: Democrats had a rough time picking a nominee to take on Senator Susan Collins, a Republican. But now, the race between her and Troy Jackson looks close.
Then there’s the House. Republicans worked to stave off their losses with aggressive redistricting, which helped the party protect as many as 11 seats. But Democrats believe that the political environment will allow them to be competitive in districts Trump won by double digits in 2024.
The money
For months, even the most bullish Democrats would privately admit to harboring deep worry about spending by outside groups that support Republicans. The last few days show you why: The gusher of cash from President Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., has arrived.
Last night, The Times reported that MAGA Inc. had, over the prior 10 days, reserved a whopping $138 million in advertising in a last-ditch effort to save Republicans’ control of Congress. The top destinations for that money, my colleague Teddy Schleifer tells me, are Senate races in Michigan ($18.2 million), Ohio ($15.1 million), Alaska ($11.3 million), New Hampshire and Texas ($10.8 million apiece).
Democratic Senate candidates have often outraised their opponents. But spending like that has helped Republicans open up a $370 million advantage over Democrats when it comes to advertising this cycle, according to tracking by AdImpact — a gap that could grow between now and November.
The Inbox
What are you watching?
I want to hear from you, On Politics readers. What interesting, quirky, super-specific issue has become the biggest deal on your ballot? It could be playing out in a local race — or maybe it’s something you think could shape a statewide contest. Has never-ending highway construction turned neighbors into enemies? Is there an overabundance of moose that needs to come under control?
Let me know at onpolitics@nytimes.com, and I may feature it in a future newsletter. The weirder, the better.
The state of voting
The Supreme Court told Trump this week that he could not use the Postal Service to screen mail-in ballots, blocking his administration’s most apparent attempt to change how this year’s elections are run. But that was far from their only effort. Here’s what else we’re keeping an eye on as Election Day approaches:
The agents: Kash Patel, the F.B.I. director, told senators yesterday that he was open to sending his agents to polling places — even though, by law, armed federal officers can’t be deployed to election sites.
The machines: The homeland security secretary, Markwayne Mullin, has pushed for an investigation into whether a commonly used voting machine can be trusted. The request, our reporters noted, could lay the groundwork for post-election claims that some votes are invalid.
The voter rolls: Federal agents are scouring states’ voter registries searching for noncitizens. Last week, the Justice Department sent threatening letters to at least 30 election officials in states that refused to hand over voters’ information.
The safeguards: Trump has gutted the government’s election security agency — which he himself created in 2018. Without that agency’s help, lawmakers of both parties worry that the midterms will be more susceptible to cyberattacks and foreign influence campaigns.
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The Federal Reserve, hoping to tame inflation, raised interest rates today for the first time since 2023. The move is likely to put Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, in an awkward spot with Trump, who frequently lashed out at his predecessor over his refusal to lower rates.
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The Cook Political Report, which assesses the state of political races, shifted its rating of the New Hampshire Senate contest from “lean Democratic” to “tossup.”
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The Kennedy Center is now closed to the public. The center’s board voted to shutter it on Tuesday, shortly after a federal judge ruled that Trump could not inscribe his name on the building.
Goodbye, primaries
This year’s primaries were full of candidate switch-ups, nation-shaking upsets and debate debacles. Before you read Tim Balk’s roller-coaster look back at those chaotic months, test your memory with a quiz question.
In August, Tom Smith won his Republican primary for a House seat in Michigan, despite the fact that he …
Choose your answer, and we’ll take you to Tim’s story and let you know if you’re right. (We’ve also made it free to read.)
