IS GIBRAN’S POLITICAL CAREER OVER?
While Gibran’s resignation marks an abrupt end to his vice-presidency, analysts are divided over how much lasting damage it could do to his political career.
Wawan from Gadjah Mada University said stepping down voluntarily could allow Gibran to preserve more of his political legitimacy than if he had been removed through impeachment.
Such a decision could be presented as an act of political responsibility, potentially leaving the door open for a comeback in the 2029 or 2034 elections.
“His political legitimacy will not be completely destroyed, and he can rebuild it in the future,” Wawan told CNA, adding that if Gibran had been impeached, it would be much harder for him to recover politically.
Jaffrey was more cautious about Gibran’s prospects, pointing to controversies over his eligibility for the vice-presidency and public demonstrations demanding his resignation.
She noted that opposition to Gibran had emerged from several quarters, including Islamist groups that had also been critical of his father.
Nevertheless, she said Jokowi still enjoyed support among significant sections of Indonesian society, making it premature to write off Gibran’s political future.
“It’s hard to say if this is the end of his career,” she said.
Aditya similarly cautioned against assuming Gibran’s departure would end Jokowi’s political ambitions.
“I still believe that the political struggle will continue. I don’t think there is such a thing as a full stop in Jokowi’s political calculations,” Aditya told CNA.
“Jokowi is a smart and strategic political actor.”
Nicky from CSIS said Gibran could even enrol in a Senior High School Equivalency Programme, known locally as the C Package, which would pave the way for him to run again in 2029.
“At the end of the day, Jokowi is trying to safeguard his political dynasty through Gibran, Kaesang in PSI, and Bobby, who is now the governor of North Sumatra,” said Nicky.
Jokowi remains politically active as a member of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), led by his younger son, Kaesang Pangarep.
Bobby Nasution is his son-in-law.
