CAN PSI ENTER PARLIAMENT IF THERE’S A NEW THRESHOLD?
But whether Jokowi can translate his personal popularity into enough votes for PSI to secure a seat in the national parliament remains unclear.
The actual threshold for the 2029 election, however, has yet to be settled.
Indonesia’s Constitutional Court ruled in 2024 that the existing 4 per cent parliamentary threshold should be revised before the 2029 election.
The court did not prescribe a replacement figure, leaving parliament and the government to formulate the new provision under criteria laid down in its ruling.
Jokowi has nevertheless set his sights considerably higher for 2029.
In Bandung on Saturday, Jokowi said that PSI should not be afraid even if the eventual parliamentary threshold were raised.
“Whether it’s 5 per cent – that’s fine. Six per cent – fine. Seven per cent – fine. Even 8 per cent is fine,” he said.
The parliamentary threshold is among a wider set of electoral rules now under discussion as lawmakers work on revisions to Indonesia’s election law.
These include the electoral system, the division between national and local elections and other rules governing political competition.
Some civil society groups have argued for a lower ceiling, saying a high threshold can leave millions of votes without representation in parliament.
Meanwhile, the chairman of the House’s Commission II, M Rifqinizamy Karsayuda, said earlier this year that he favoured retaining a threshold and suggested that a figure between 5 per cent and 7 per cent could strengthen the party system and government effectiveness.
Commission II oversees matters related to domestic governance and elections, among others.
Political elites from the ruling party informally discussed the 5 per cent threshold about two weeks ago, but an official discussion in the House of Representatives will likely only happen in 2027.
There is no consensus over when the new parliamentary threshold should be set.
Analysts said that if the threshold is raised to 5 per cent, it will be hard for PSI to make it into parliament.
Nicky of CSIS said that the threshold should ultimately allow viable new political forces to enter parliament and contribute to checks and balances, rather than unnecessarily closing the system to alternatives.
“We need a breath of fresh air in parliament to ensure checks and balances function effectively,” said Nicky.
“We need new parties bringing new ideas and fresh faces.”
