European leaders have waited on the margins of negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine for months, eyeing a seat at the table. Now they finally expect to get one, and they don’t know who should sit in it.
“If Europe could identify one person to speak on their behalf, that would be a bigger achievement than getting the Russians to include them in the negotiation,” Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and one of his two envoys, said on Thursday.
Mr. Kushner’s dig reflected a harsh — and, for Europe, potentially embarrassing — reality that internal divisions could cost European officials time and influence. Mr. Kushner and his fellow lead U.S. negotiator, Steve Witkoff, pushed this week to add the Europeans to the talks after Russia insisted during discussions in the United Arab Emirates that postwar security in Europe be a topic of negotiation.
Russian negotiators made it clear during the talks with Ukraine and the United States that as a condition of ending the war, they want Europe to change how it protects itself. Russia has a record of pushing to pare back NATO operations near its border.
European officials have rejected those suggestions, insisting that the continent, not the Kremlin, decides its own security. But Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff expressed openness to expanding the scope of the talks to try to break the impasse on discussions about the war.
“I don’t want someone to talk about our European house, if they are not living in that house,” Luc Frieden, prime minister of Luxembourg, said in an interview on Friday.
Naming a lead negotiator would give Europe a voice in discussions about its own future, while failing to identify someone quickly might make the continent appear weak and fragmented. How the Ukraine war is settled could reverberate across Europe for decades — either containing the threat of Russian expansionism or emboldening it.
“Europe really needs to pay attention,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine warned dozens of leaders from across the continent assembled in Dublin for a summit on Thursday. European Union leaders will debate who should represent them on Friday at a lunch in the Irish capital. Mr. Zelensky is pushing Europe to choose someone by the end of the month, possibly as soon as a meeting of Ukraine’s allies next Thursday in Germany.
The issue grew more pressing late on Thursday. Mr. Kushner told reporters at an air base in Dublin, after a meeting with the Kremlin, that Russian officials had been asked about having European negotiators at the table and were “willing to give it a try.” Mr. Zelensky, standing alongside him, added that “next time, next meeting,” Europe will be on the “negotiation team.”
Even with such high stakes, picking a representative, or even a small group to speak for Europe, has become a herculean lift.
Small nations in the European Union do not always trust big ones to reflect their interests. Britain and Norway, which have a financial and security stake, are not part of the union. Eastern nations bordering Russia doubt that western ones understand the depth of the menace they face.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland said on Thursday, “Under no circumstances will we allow new security rules for this part of the world to be established over our heads, without Poland or Europe having a say.”
European officials have already warned not to expect an immediate choice, though nominations are pouring in.
António Costa, president of the European Union’s political leadership arm, comes up frequently as a possibility. Mr. Frieden, the Luxembourg prime minister, has suggested that Mr. Costa should be the bloc’s representative. Prime Minister Andrej Babis of the Czech Republic threw out a handful of names, including Mr. Tusk and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy.
Several leaders suggested that they were more likely to settle on a group than a single person.
“It’s not necessarily one person, but there should be a clear, coherent leadership, from the European Union, at that table,” Micheal Martin, the Irish leader, told reporters this week.
One possibility could be a team of negotiators from Europe’s large nations, Britain and NATO, led by Mr. Costa as a central figure. Mr. Costa himself alluded to a potential grouping.
“Europe’s security cannot be discussed without a European voice at the table — that European voice needs to be a team effort between European nations, the European Union and NATO,” he said.
Two European diplomats said that one concern is that Mr. Costa may lack the international stature to impress the Russians and Americans. The diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.
Mr. Costa has long argued that the European Union must be represented in discussions because the bloc controls a large set of sanctions against Russia, which Moscow wants rolled back. Another factor is Ukraine’s potential E.U. membership, which Kyiv wants as a security guarantee.
Complicating matters, many European officials have opposed even opening discussions with Russia before Moscow agrees to a cease-fire.
When Mr. Costa’s office tried in June to reopen lines of communication with Russia, France and Germany criticized him for overreaching.
These discussions might unfold differently, the two European diplomats suggested, because the chance of sitting at the table now seems realistic and Europe’s security is clearly on the line.
“We will figure out who to represent Europe,” Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark said on Thursday. “In democracies, there will be discussions, but I’m pretty sure we will find a way forward.”
That doesn’t mean it won’t be tumultuous.
