Democrats surge as Musk backs Republicans

One of the last big campaign-finance snapshots before the Nov. 3 Election Day is now available, and both political parties found something to like. But campaign cash is flowing in very different ways — and, on balance, points to an environment more favorable for Democrats.

On one side, Democratic candidates have turned into absolute cash cows, raising oodles more than their Republican rivals across Senate and House battlegrounds.

Republicans, however, still have a leg to stand on from an unprecedented flood of outside super PAC cash, bankrolled by a tiny circle of billionaires led by Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. The deluge of capital could be enough to stave off the worst of what has otherwise been a treacherous political environment for the GOP amid stubbornly high inflation and drooping approval ratings for President Donald Trump.

A flurry of Federal Election Commission filings Thursday at a key deadline detailed what candidates raised and spent from July through September and give insight into many of the outside groups backing them. More of the outside-money picture comes next week with another deadline for additional filings.

Here are CNBC’s five takeaways:

If Democrats want a financial case for a blue wave, start with the candidates themselves.

Democratic Senate nominees put up gaudy third-quarter totals. James Talarico raised $60.2 million in Texas, Jon Ossoff brought in $33.1 million in Georgia and Abdul El-Sayed raised $30.7 million in Michigan. Sherrod Brown brought in $23.1 million in Ohio, while Troy Jackson raised $20.4 million in Maine, Mary Peltola $14.1 million in Alaska and Roy Cooper $12.2 million in North Carolina.

Even in reliably red Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton raised $9.4 million.

In several of those races, the Republican numbers were not even close. Ken Paxton raised about $10.2 million in Texas, Mike Rogers $9.7 million in Michigan, Susan Collins $5.2 million in Maine and Jon Husted $4.8 million in Ohio.

Candidate dollars are especially potent in the final stretch because campaigns control where they go and qualify for lower television advertising rates than super PACs do. In other words, Republicans may be able to make up a $1 fundraising gap with outside money — but it can cost them more than $1 to do it.

The same fundraising edge stretches into the House.

Democratic candidates outraised their Republican opponents through September in 13 of the 21 House races currently rated Toss Up by Cook, according to a CNBC analysis of FEC filings. In North Carolina’s 11th District, for example, Democrat Jamie Ager raised $2.1 million in the third quarter, compared with roughly $313,000 for Republican Jennifer Balkcom.

The fundraising surge coincides with a shifting map: the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter projected last week that Democrats could gain two to six Senate seats — enough to put the four-seat majority threshold within reach — and nine to 19 House seats, which would flip the chamber.

While Democratic candidates dominate direct donations, Republicans are countering with overwhelming outside spending.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP’s main Senate super PAC, raised a record $272.9 million from July through September, roughly $122 million more than its Democratic counterpart, according to FEC filings. On the House side, the Congressional Leadership Fund raised a record $94.4 million during the quarter and entered October with $156 million in cash, according to its FEC filing.

That outside money is functioning as a financial backstop for GOP candidates who trail badly in direct fundraising. Texas is the most extreme example: the SLF funneled $158 million into Texas PAC, the super PAC backing Paxton, according to FEC filings.

Elsewhere, Republicans have committed $15 million through the SLF to defend Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, The Wall Street Journal reported this week. Outside groups account for roughly 80% of all ad buys in Alaska, where the SLF has spent $14 million backing Sen. Dan Sullivan, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data.

The blitz allowed Republicans to hold an aired-ad advantage in seven of eight top Senate battles and 25 of 42 contested House seats rated “Toss Up” or “Lean” Republican or Democrat by the Cook Report as of Oct. 9, according to AdImpact.

But polls have shown little movement in recent weeks, despite the advantage.

No donor better captures the scale — or the leverage — of that outside-money advantage than the world’s richest person, Musk.

He pumped more than $276 million into federal political groups during the third quarter, making him the biggest known individual donor of the midterms. His disclosed giving included $158 million to Senate Leadership Fund and another $89 million to his America PAC, according to FEC filings.

Most of that capital was earmarked for a single rescue mission: Texas, the state that’s his primary residence and headquarters of his businesses.

Musk gave the SLF $75 million on Sept. 9 and another $83 million on Sept. 23. Both times, the SLF transferred the exact same amount to Texas PAC the following day. The group, which is backing Paxton, reported no other donors through the end of September.

Until now, many national Republicans had been reluctant to sink resources into the Lone Star state’s expensive media market while fighting across an already expanded Senate map. Musk effectively erased that trade-off, supplying enough money to build a dedicated financial firewall around Paxton without forcing the party to pull resources from other battlegrounds.

For months, Democrats worried over the reluctance of traditional megadonors to write checks following the 2024 election cycle with presidential contest drama at the top of the ticket. The latest filings suggest that freeze is thawing — though much money is still bypassing the Democratic National Committee.

Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and his wife, Cari Tuna, put about $16 million into the midterm fight this summer, according to FEC filings, while LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, who had also withheld money from the DNC this cycle, poured $11.5 million into the super PAC backing Talarico earlier this year.

The renewed megadonor money gives Democrats another source of firepower for the final weeks that can be quickly redirected if needed.

Already, Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC raised a record $151 million in the third quarter and ended September with $112 million in cash, even as its Republican counterpart raised substantially more.

All the spending is feeding an election on track to shatter spending records.

AdImpact projects $11.6 billion in political advertising during the 2025-26 election cycle, which would make 2026 the most expensive cycle on record — surpassing both the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterms and the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential cycle.

The congressional fight alone has already put $3.8 billion in advertising on the air, more than $870 million ahead of the comparable point in 2024, according to AdImpact. Senate races are helping drive the surge: the firm projects $3.4 billion in Senate advertising by the end of the cycle, up 48% from 2022.

But as the amount of money rises, some of it is becoming harder for voters to trace back to its original source.

Thursday’s filings showed millions flowing into super PACs from nonprofits and other entities that are not required to disclose their own donors, leaving the original source of some of the cycle’s biggest checks hidden.