Democratic wave shifted where gaming companies find risks and rewards

Midterm election results have created new openings for U.S. gambling expansion, while raising the prospect of greater political and legal pressure on prediction markets, according to gaming industry executives.

“The whole landscape changed,” said Craig Billings, CEO of Wynn Resorts, during the company’s earnings call Thursday.

Wynn has been closely watchng developments in the Middle East as it looks to open the United Arab Emirates’ first legal casino in 2027. Billings said he suspects the election will have an impact on the “likely trajectory of the conflict in the region.”

Closer to home, Billings sees opportunities in Texas. And he’s not the only one. On the heels of reporting record third-quarter revenue and raising guidance for its brick-and-mortar business, Penn Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden called out specific opportunities made possible by state leadership changes.

Election Day was “a very good day overall for the industry, and certainly for Penn,” Snowden said on Thursday’s earnings call.

Texas, in particular, could be a jackpot for the casino industry. In a massive upset, Democrat Vikki Goodwin defeated longtime Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who has been persistent in blocking gambling expansion in the Lone Star State.

“Texas is a fascinating market,” Billings said, explaining how many consumers travel to Oklahoma to gamble at tribal casions. “So it’s kind of a stealth market that is giant.”

Penn has been building a position in Texas for years, Snowden said. It operates two of the state’s three Class 1 thoroughbred racetracks and has established relationships with local leaders.

“We’re ready to play offense,” he said.

Penn plans to spend more time in Texas and, if lawmakers move toward legalization, Snowden said he expects the company is “positioned as well, if not better than really anybody in the sector.”

Las Vegas Sands also has invested heavily for many years to get casino gambling legalized in Texas.

“When Las Vegas Sands thinks about Texas and the Metroplex, it’s really about an asset that will be both for business and future tourism,” Sands Chairman and CEO Patrick Dumont told CNBC in an interview in October in Macao.

Dumont recently acquired the controlling stake in the Dallas Mavericks from his mother-in-law Miriam Adelson. He said there is the potential for a new Mavericks arena to incorporate a future casino.

“Whatever Las Vegas Sands can do in the future, that will be its own location, its own site and its own timeline,” he said.

Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta, currently serving as U.S. ambassador to Italy, owns Golden Nugget casinos, is Wynn Resorts‘ largest investor and is buying Caesars to take it private. Following a CNBC interview in Italy, he said, “Of course I want gaming in Texas!”

A new market would draw national sportsbook operators that would likely include DraftKings, Flutter-owned FanDuel, Caesars, Fanatics, and BetMGM, which is co-owned by MGM and Entain, among others.

Though the Texas’ state election removed a major political obstacle, it didn’t produce a deal. Legalizing casino gambling or sports betting would still require a constitutional amendment approved by two-thirds of both chambers and then voters.

Texas state control is now divided. While Democrats flipped the state House, Republicans kept the Senate. Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the governorship.

Las Vegas Sands spokesman Ron Reese told CNBC it’s too early to speculate about what might happen with Texas gaming, but that the company will monitor developments closely.

Truist gaming analyst Barry Jonas wrote in a Wednesday note that he sees mixed implications from the midterm results.

“The Ohio governor-elect Amy Acton’s support for regulated online casinos could improve the chances of iGaming legalization,” Jonas said. On the other hand, Nebraska voters rejected ballot measures to legalize online betting.

Georgia, where Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms won the governorship, could also provide an opportunity. She campaigned on letting voters decide whether to legalize casino gambling, with revenue expected to be earmarked to help fund education. Sports betting and casinos remain illegal in the state, and earlier sports-betting legislation failed in the House.

Penn could also benefit if lawmakers seek tighter regulations for so-called skill-based gaming machines, which compete with casinos and licensed video gaming terminals, according to Snowden. He said candidates who support skill-based gaming machines lost seats or influence in several states.

Penn operates four casinos in Pennsylvania as well as video gaming terminals in that state and other jurisdictions, and has three casinos in Missouri.

Snowden linked recent strong year-over-year gaming revenue growth to the shutdown of skill games in Pennsylvania in mid-October. Although he cautioned that it was too early to know whether Pennsylvania’s growth would last, he noted Missouri also saw strong revenue growth as its state attorney general pursued the machines there.

In Indiana, voters in three counties rejected a proposed casino license, which Penn sees as a benefit as it limits new competition for existing casinos in Indiana and neighboring Illinois and Ohio. Some gaming insiders speculate that a wave of left-leaning progressives in power could work to limit gambling businesses.

“There’s no shortage of noise about where this industry is headed, and the election certainly turns up the volume,” said Joe Maloney, president of Sports Betting Alliance. “What hasn’t changed with the election is what works, and that’s state-regulated sports betting and iGaming, built on accountability, consumer protection, and tax revenue for states. That’s our lane, and we’ll make that case to every new lawmaker willing to listen.”

Democratic victories are likely to increase the pressure on prediction markets, even as industry supporters call out their predictive value in forecasting the election results.

“Every eligible customer should have access to these markets, which are federally regulated through our CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant,” a Robinhood spokesperson said.

Democrats’ control of Congress gives them subpoena power and committee resources to investigate the president’s family and business dealings. That could put Donald Trump Jr. back in the spotlight as he is a paid strategic adviser to Kalshi and sits on Polymarket’s advisory board.

Congress could also consider legislation limiting the markets’ scope. The bipartisan Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act would bar Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated exchanges from offering contracts based on sports or casino-style games. But the bill had only been referred to committee as of the election. A veto-proof law would require two-thirds support in both chambers; no such vote is currently scheduled.

The American Gaming Association has been fighting prediction markets as unlicensed gambling.

“The prediction markets are facing a tsunami of criminal charges, major civil investigations and significant defeats in court,” Bill Miller, the trade group’s CEO, told CNBC. “In the aftermath of the election, we expect the bipartisan scrutiny of these platforms to further intensify.”

“Our platform is an institutional-grade exchange with strong market-integrity and customer-protection programs,” Polymarket told CNBC. A spokesman said the company welcomes the opportunity to work with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.

Repeated requests to Kalshi for comment went unanswered.

Jeff LeRiche, a partner at law firm Husch Blackwell, said he expects more scrutiny.

“Entities with robust compliance and surveillance infrastructure will be well positioned to navigate the increased attention,” said LeRiche, who spent more than 20 years in the CFTC’s enforcement division.

The state-level legal fight is already underway. Utah has filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its founders, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit rejected Kalshi’s request for a rehearing in its Nevada case, leaving the company exposed to state enforcement there.

New Democratic attorneys general in Ohio, Michigan and Nevada will also decide how to handle inherited disputes.

Ohio’s outgoing AG Andy Wilson helped lead a multistate effort to defend state gambling laws, Michigan’s Dana Nessel sued Kalshi and won a preliminary injunction, and Nevada’s Aaron Ford secured injunctions against prediction-market operators.

New AGs could also decide to follow Utah’s lead in filing criminal charges, along with Arizona where criminal charges are pending.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.