The Sudanese government’s allegations that Ethiopia is behind a deadly wave of unmanned aerial assaults belie a deep and longstanding rift between the two countries, which threatens to intensify internal conflicts in both.
Sudan has officially lodged complaints with the United Nations Security Council and the African Union’s Peace and Security Council over allegations that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary – which has been at war with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023 – is using Ethiopian territory to launch attacks against civilian sites, including power stations.
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Ethiopia’s alleged support for the RSF has triggered differences within the SAF on how to respond next, Sudanese border affairs specialist Abdul Kareem Al-Almin Ahmed told Al Jazeera.
“The mutual accusations are many and almost daily, and the tension on the part of the Sudanese army has reached high levels, to the degree that made some voices inside the Sudanese army and the forces allied with it demand that Sudan declare war on Ethiopia based on these interventions,” Al-Almin told Al Jazeera.
Suspected RSF drone attacks have heavily damaged civilian infrastructure in SAF-controlled areas. More than 90 percent of power stations in Sudanese cities have been rendered out of service due to drone attacks, and al-Almin said the technological capabilities of these weapons indicate significant external backing.
“They are mysterious drones, drones that reach long distances, and almost all Sudanese lands are currently violated by these drones, which confirms that they are drones with a special characteristic and flight properties for a long range and have high destructive power,” Al-Almin added.
A detailed report prepared by the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs alongside military intelligence claimed that 70 separate assaults involving 187 one-way attack drones were launched from Ethiopian territory between February and October. The frequency of these attacks seems to be increasing, with 28 attacks carried out by 97 drones in October.
The use of armed drones has been catastrophic for civilians in Sudan, with 13 million people already displaced and thousands at risk of famine due to the war.
Between February 15 and October 27, drone attacks killed 176 Sudanese soldiers and 484 civilians, according to a report compiled by the Transitional Sovereignty Council, which is linked to the de facto Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the SAF. It identified Asosa Airport in western Ethiopia, the Kurmuk-Gizen border area, and the Bahir Dar airbase in Amhara as specific launch sites for drone attacks.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Saturday he was appalled by the use of drones in the war and condemned the catastrophic toll this was having on civilians. A drone attack on displaced families in Wad el-Mahi, near the Ethiopian border on October 3, killed 26 women and four children. Another drone attack in Nyala, in Sudan’s Darfur region, on October 26 killed at least 21 people and injured at least 40.
The Sudanese military has repeatedly accused the Ethiopian government of aiding the RSF. Addis Ababa denies the claims and has in turn accused the Sudanese government of backing rebels linked to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.
The tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia extend beyond these drone attacks and allegations of support for rebel groups. They also involve a confrontation over water resources and strategic regional alliances.
There have been ongoing tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), built by Addis Ababa on the Nile River.
Egypt and Sudan rely heavily on the Nile for water supplies and, being downstream, fear the GERD threatens their national security and claim it breaches international law.
“The Sudanese-Ethiopian file is a complex file, in which many factors have intertwined: The Renaissance Dam problem first … and the rapprochement between the Sudanese army and the Egyptian government,” Al-Almin said. The Sudanese government is also angered that the RSF is allegedly receiving support from Ethiopia, he added.
But Badr Hassan Al-Shafei, a professor of African studies and conflict resolution expert, said fears of an escalation that could harm Sudan and Ethiopia are preventing an all-out confrontation between the two countries.
In a study published by the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, Al-Shafei wrote that “Khartoum’s interest lies in the stability of its eastern neighbourhood to avoid security threats and waves of asylum.
“Khartoum fears that providing military support to Tigray will lead to an explosion of the situation on its borders, which may increase displacement operations that the border Sudanese states cannot bear, especially in light of the continuation of the war against Hemedti,” Al-Shafei stated.
A direct military confrontation with Addis Ababa would severely strain an already exhausted Sudanese military apparatus, which is still involved in intense battles with the RSF in the southeast of the country.
Ultimately, leaders of both countries recognise the catastrophic potential of expanding the battlefield beyond each other’s borders.
“If the Sudanese army opens a war front with Ethiopia, this is not in its favour and confuses the region,” Al-Amin wrote.
“[Sudan could find itself] fighting on two fronts: Fighting the Rapid Support Forces that occupy part of Sudan, and fighting the Ethiopian army that possesses its capabilities and the border extension capable of reaching through it.”
