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Debt markets are sending a message to AI data center builders: we’re hiking the interest rate on your credit card and may put some new curbs on your credit limit.
That analogy comes courtesy of Jefferies global head of equity strategy, Christopher Wood, who put it in a note on Friday: “The most plausible way the AI capex arms race will end is that the credit card will be taken away.”
That isn’t happening yet, but credit markets have been spooked by the new political landscape — seeing more hurdles to data centers under Democratic governors in key states, along with a Democratic-controlled Congress.
The poster child for debt stress is neocloud Coreweave. The yield on its 2032 bond with a 9.625% coupon has climbed above 16%. Coreweave’s five-year credit default swaps spiked above 1,289 basis points on Thursday, widening above their October peak, according to Deutsche Bank. The CDS eased 8% Friday to around 1,155.
“We’ve had plenty of warnings from the credit space,” said Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s global head of macro and thematic research, in a note on Friday. Debt and equities are now moving more in sync, he added, “so we’ll have to see if credit goes any further.”
Investors are demanding more compensation to insure against default among even companies with the strongest balance sheets and credit ratings, including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Amazon.com.
CDS on Nvidia debt is up 76% in the last month. Broadcom’s CDS is up 49%, while Amazon’s has gained 44%. Their CDS remain low on an absolute basis; Nvidia’s spread stood at roughly 139 basis points, compared with about 298 bps for Oracle and roughly 1,100 for CoreWeave. A large increase from a low starting point does not imply the same credit risk.
Still, rising CDS are a sign that markets want more protection against default among even the largest and healthiest debt issuers. And rising CDS imply higher financing costs down the line.
The market is now grappling with the prospect that at least some data center spending will be delayed or scrapped under incoming Democratic governors in Ohio, Texas, and Georgia, the three states with much of the planned capacity.
Moratoriums could impact 45% of planned capacity in the U.S. with a large amount of that in Texas, according to Goldman Sachs. Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has said she’s not opposed to data centers but wants a moratorium until the state legislature passes protections for communities.
None of these means AI debt financing is collapsing. Goldman tallies five AI bond deals totaling $67 billion since October 29, pushing total hyperscaler debt issuance this year to $296 billion. Goldman forecasts $440 billion of hyperscaler debt issuance next year, plus an additional $300 billion of project-level issuance across investment-grade and high-yield.
The Trump administration is vowing to support data centers. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Friday that he expects data center growth to continue as forecast, despite Democrats’ big election wins.
What comes next
The big question now is how quickly AI spending will generate enough cash for hyperscalers to keep investors comfortable with future capex plans. For the neoclouds, any sign of consolidation or retrenchment in capex could result in fewer or shorter contracts for data center compute or delays in prepayments.
Goldman analysts said hyperscalers collectively reported negative free cash flow in the third quarter as capital spending exceeded operating cash flow.
“Delayed monetization and growth in purchase commitments—which we view as additional and sizable uses of cash, separate from Capex—are the key risks to more debt issuance, subject to market conditions,” according to the bank.
Peak AI debt issuance may now be closer at hand. Bank of America analysts estimates that AI-related credit issuance will rise 31% from 2026 to 2027, hitting $685 billion, including public and private debt. They then see it falling 23% to $531 billion in 2028.
As for the risk? “Downside to these forecasts exists from a potential slowdown in AI infrastructure projects on the back of the Blue Wave, which will reduce capex needs and thus debt market funding,” BofA said in a note.
-CNBC’s Nick Wells and Michael Bloom contributed reporting
