The latest clashes also come around the time of the 10th anniversary of the 2016 arbitration ruling that China’s nine-dash line was unlawful as a claim to maritime space. Beijing has never accepted the ruling.
EVERY MOVE ADDS UP
The broader direction is even clearer at Scarborough Shoal, where China has achieved practical on-water control by setting new rules, expanding its ability to enforce them and restricting access to the shoal.
China telegraphed its intent in 2025 with its announcement of a “Huangyan Dao National Nature Reserve” covering significant sections of the shoal. Since then, Beijing has been steadily building the administrative and legal frameworks to make comprehensive “management and control” of the disputed atoll a reality.
On Aug 1, the Ministry of Natural Resources, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, China Coast Guard, and Hainan provincial government jointly issued management rules reserve. The rules establish a routine patrol system, authorise investigation and punishment of violations, prohibit unauthorised fishing and other activities – which in effect prevent Philippine fisherman from entering the reserve except under specified circumstances.
Data from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative show China has doubled its Coast Guard patrolling presence around Scarborough Shoal in 2025 compared to the previous year. The same data indicate it’s on track to double it again in 2026. In April, China reinstalled a floating barrier across the entrance of the shoal.
Nor is all this an isolated episode. This is occurring alongside efforts to strengthen Chinese physical presence elsewhere in the South China Sea, including major new reclamation at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands.
