WHAT COUNTS AS PROGRESS?
Against this backdrop, the 5PC remains important even if progress on implementing it has been limited.
The point is not to expect all five elements to be fully achieved before ASEAN can move forward, but to retain a common benchmark against which progress can be assessed. As Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan put it, the 5PC “was and remains valid”, but ASEAN needs to see “demonstrable progress”.
The more difficult question is what demonstrable progress looks like. He identified three areas: an end to violence against civilians, the release of political detainees including ex-leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and humanitarian assistance reaching people across the country regardless of political allegiance.
These need to be translated into outcomes that can realistically be observed.
A literal cessation of violence across Myanmar is not a realistic short-term expectation. The conflict involves the military, ethnic armed organisations, People’s Defence Forces and other armed groups operating in a highly fragmented environment.
If cessation of violence is not yet realistic, civilian protection could serve as a more practical benchmark.
The question should be whether harm to civilians is decreasing, whether humanitarian pauses or local ceasefires are observed, and whether all forces show greater restraint. This should apply to all armed actors, although the military’s control of air power and the state’s coercive machinery give it particular responsibilities.
