Why did Ukraine publicise the transfer?
The disclosure may have been intended to encourage Seoul to provide greater support for Ukraine.
South Korea’s spy agency said Zelenskyy may have hoped the disclosure would generate greater public support in South Korea for providing weapons and other assistance to Ukraine.
A major arms producer, South Korea has faced pressure from some Western countries and Kyiv to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons.
But it has not done so, in line with its longstanding policy against directly supplying lethal weapons to countries at war, although it has considered requests for defensive weapons.
Asst Prof Ryu believes Zelenskyy’s disclosure may have been a signal to South Korea.
“In my view, he was trying to tell Seoul that (its) national security could also come under strain in the future, unless (it) helps Ukraine prevail in the military conflict against Russia, without appreciating the intricate issues that could arise with the disclosure of the prisoners of war transfers,” he explained.
How significant is the diplomatic dispute?
South Korea said Ukraine’s denial of the secrecy agreement has “seriously damaged” trust between the two governments and could harm bilateral relations.
But Asst Prof Ryu said both countries had too much at stake in their relationship to allow the disagreement to seriously derail bilateral ties.
Seoul in July announced a US$100 million support package for Ukraine and pledged continued humanitarian assistance and support for its reconstruction.
“Both sides need to manage it quietly and rationally, and take it as an opportunity to deepen bilateral cooperation rather than letting it weaken bilateral cooperation,” Asst Prof Ryu said.
Beyond bilateral ties, the row comes at a sensitive time for Ukraine, which has sought greater military assistance from South Korea as North Korea deepens its support for Russia.
North Korea’s deployment of troops to fight for Russia has given Seoul a more direct stake in developments in Ukraine. South Korea is also a major arms producer and could play a significant role in Ukraine’s eventual reconstruction.
“Seoul is a key partner for Kyiv in terms of weapons supply and future reconstruction to Ukraine, and Kyiv cannot afford to lose Seoul’s support,” Asst Prof Ryu said.
The diplomatic row could complicate discussions over greater military support from Seoul, although South Korea’s foreign ministry has said the dispute would not be linked to its humanitarian assistance to Ukraine or cooperation on post-war reconstruction.
