Syaza said delivering greater representation would be well received by GRS, GPS and other East Malaysian parties – and could pay off for Anwar.
“This move could be in Anwar’s favour because it strengthens the support (from Sabah and Sarawak in the current term) and for him to get a second term at the next polls,” she said.
But the chances of completing such a change before the next general election are “slim”, given the time and political consensus required, Syaza noted.
Increasing the number of MPs allocated to the East Malaysian states would also require an amendment to Article 46 of the Federal Constitution – and therefore the support of at least two-thirds of MPs in the Dewan Rakyat, Azmi said.
Without BN’s support, Anwar would struggle to muster those numbers.
“Anwar’s government is in a weak position … and I think that’s the reason why Zahid and UMNO remain confident and hold the upper hand,” Azmi said.
The Borneo parties will also have a broader calculation, analysts said.
Sabah and Sarawak have “always been the stabilising force in Malaysian politics and they are unlikely to want to rock the boat”, Syaza noted. “A PH+GPS+GRS coalition is not stable, especially without a (conservative) Malay party as an anchor.”
GPS and GRS will want to align themselves with a coalition that can garner a two-thirds majority as this would be “the main ingredient in passing MA63-related constitutional amendments both blocs are seeking to obtain”, said Ahmad Mohsein.
“With PH on the retreat following consecutive losses in three state elections, a BN-PN tie-up appears more likely to have the upper hand come GE16,” he said.
PH’s recent poor performances in state elections mean that Anwar is likely to delay calling a general election for as long as feasible, analysts said.
Ultimately, BN and Anwar’s interdependence may be the reason why the increasingly public sparring between Anwar and Zahid is unlikely, for now, to result in an outright rupture, Azmi suggested.
He expects their barbed exchanges to continue as both sides seek to maximise leverage without being the one to bring down the government.
Anwar himself said differing views within the government are “normal” and he is handling them with a “moderate” approach, reported Bernama news agency.
“I choose a somewhat moderate path because what is important is that the government must be stable, otherwise there will be many losses for our country,” he said on Monday when asked about issues raised at the UMNO General Assembly.
“We listen to everything, but to my knowledge, I don’t see any problems. There are small and normal ones. Even in a household, there are minor issues, let alone with political commanders,” he told Malaysian media before concluding his working visit to India.
Analysts agreed Malaysia’s fluid coalition politics means today’s adversaries could just as easily find themselves partners again.
“After polling night, you never know. It may be the case (that they) will work together again to form the government,” Azmi said.
