Prime Minister Mark Carney has laid out a timeline that would see Canada sign an agreement on a new partnership with the European Union in the next seven months, if all goes well.
Carney said Friday that Ottawa and Brussels are working toward the “deepest possible partnership short of accession” that would see Canada become “the European Union’s first associate member.”
He said in the coming months, the two sides will meet to “determine the full substance, scale and scope of this new form of membership.”
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, championed the idea of associate membership in Strasbourg, France, last month. On Friday, she said she believes in building a partnership with Canada that “comes closer to membership than anything we’ve done before.”
Even though top EU officials are enthusiastic about closer ties with Canada, the talks won’t necessarily be a walk in the park. The European Union is far from politically united on the idea.
Achim Hurrelmann, co-director of the Centre for European Studies at Carleton University, said it could prove difficult to negotiate that status, especially in the short term.
“I’m not sure if a status with that name can be established for Canada any time soon,” he said.
“It seems that von der Leyen and Carney have decided to just press ahead with the use of this term and use the momentum that’s there on both sides for Canada-EU relations to make this a reality. But in the EU, that often can be quite difficult because once all of the member states get involved — we saw that in negotiating the summit declaration — then the entity is able to move only very slowly.”
Carney and EU officials met for a summit in Montreal on Thursday and Friday, where they agreed on a joint statement promoting what they called a “Canada-EU Alliance for the Future.”
The joint statement commits the two sides to working to “define by the 2027 EU-Canada Summit the concept of an ever-closer association of Canada to the EU, short of full membership itself.”
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The 27-member bloc ultimately opted against including the term “associate member” in the joint statement. The phrase has seen some pushback from countries like Germany, which see it as a stepping-stone to permanent membership for countries like Ukraine.
EU debates are always complicated matters. In the coming months, major European countries will go to the polls for elections that could shake up the nature of those talks.
Spain’s general election is set for Nov. 29 and the French presidential elections go ahead in April. Poland will also go to the polls next year for parliamentary elections on Nov. 11.
Hurrelmann said the main challenge remains a lack of clarity on the term “associate membership” in Europe. He noted the language used by Canadian officials this week has been the “strongest embrace of associate membership” he’s seen by the Canadian side.
“It’s very clear that even if it’s associate membership … that it’s not just some kind of occasional political agreement, but something quite fundamental,” he said. “So I think the member states definitely will insist on their right to be heard on that.”
Carney said Friday he will meet with the EU presidents periodically to track progress, and Canada’s federal cabinet will meet in March with European cabinets in Canada.
The prime minister will then attend the European Council meetings in June, where the aim is to conclude negotiations. EU members would have to approve the resulting agreement, which would be put to a vote in the House of Commons as well.
Carney has said he’s not married to the term “associate member” and is more concerned about the outcomes from closer economic and defence ties.
“There is a case for an enhanced partnership status,” said Hurrelmann. “Maybe finding a different label will eventually do the trick, but that remains to be seen.”
The joint statement signed Friday calls for more industrial collaboration and supply chain integration and cites various joint projects. There are plans to create a new Canada-EU business council.
The Prime Minister’s Office said Canada and the European Union will in the coming months take their first steps toward a new transatlantic data cable and study how to increase liquefied natural gas exports to the European market.
— With files from Dylan Robertson
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