Adobe (ADBE) stock opened lower on September 11, and D.A. Davidson senior analyst Gil Luria believes the decline was justified.
Luria rates the software giant a Buy and has a $250 price target on the stock.
“Adobe has been characterized as an AI loser,” he admitted in a recent interview with CNBC today.
But it’s not all that’s weighing on its share price at writing, the analyst added.
Adobe shares have been disappointing for investors amidst AI disruption fears in 2026 – currently down more than 25% versus the start of this year.
CEO transition is hurting Adobe stock
Luria highlighted Adobe’s recent executive shakeup as another major weight dragging down the stock.
The company’s former chief executive Shantanu Narayen stepped down about three months ago – and it named an internal hire, Anil Chakravarthy, as successor alongside earnings last night.
According to the D.A. Davidson analyst, promoting from within after a “months-long” transition implies the board searched externally but failed to attract outside talent willing to steer the giant through its current crosswinds.
This clunky transition creates friction – leaving investors increasingly wary that ADBE shares lack fresh leadership perspective to navigate market pressures and reverse their year-to-date decline.
Note that Adobe doesn’t currently pay a dividend either to incentivize ownership despite dwindling sentiment.
Adobe earnings failed to alleviate AI disruption fears
Adding to the leadership uncertainty, Adobe’s fiscal Q3 earnings offered little to no comfort to an increasingly skeptical Wall Street.
The software giant bears the burden of proof to disprove the narrative that it is falling behind in the generative AI race.
And delivering merely in-line quarterly results does nothing to dismantle that harmful “AI loser” perception, he argued on “Closing Bell: Overtime”.
Luria emphasized that meeting baseline market expectations fails to give investors a compelling reason to believe ADBE can defend its moat against aggressively evolving AI rivals.
Without standout growth or definitive proof of AI monetization, the latest report reinforces fears that Adobe stock remains highly vulnerable to artificial intelligence disruption.
How to play ADBE shares after Q3 earnings
For ADBE stock to reverse its recent declines, management must lay out a clear and “actionable” roadmap to accelerate revenue growth, Luria noted.
According to him, Adobe could revive momentum by pursuing “financially accretive” acquisitions or forging high-impact AI ecosystem partnerships – similar to Salesforce Inc’s landmark deal with Anthropic – to prove its businesses will continue to expand.
Note that ADBE was briefly seen trading below its 100-day moving average (MA) this morning – indicating the bearish momentum could sustain in the near-term.
Investors should also note that despite holding a Buy rating, D.A. Davidson’s $250 price target is actually roughly in line with the price at which the software stock is trading already.
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