2026 election results shake up Capitol Hill political calculus

Political observers will rank the midterm elections of 2026 alongside the epic sea changes of 1994, 2010 and 2018.

It’s generally thought that the 1994 midterm, which propelled Newt Gingrich to the House speakership, was the most seismic. That’s largely because Republicans hadn’t controlled the House in 40 years. But 2026 will likely rival 1994, because of how Democrats overperformed in House races in Trump-favored districts, overcame redistricting in Texas and Florida, and won in states like South Carolina and Kansas.

Don’t forget that heading into this cycle, 23 of the 35 seats favored Republicans. On paper, this looked like a favorable year for the GOP.

The question is just how large the margins might be for Democrats, and what that means when it comes to working — or not working — with President Donald Trump. The president has signaled he’ll veto extreme measures which come from Congress under Democratic control, but also offered to work together on certain issues.

TRUMP CONGRATULATES DEMOCRATS AFTER DOMINANT MIDTERMS, SAYS HE LOOKS FORWARD TO WORKING WITH THEM

The 2026 midterms will determine control of the House and Senate, shaping President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda during the final two years of his term. (Al Drago/Getty Images)

Democrats could argue the vote was a mandate to rebuke the president. Some won’t be willing to work with him at all. Trump is out the door in a little over two years. He suffered historic losses in states and districts which he carried by double digits two years ago. Democrats are already threatening administration officials they’d better “lawyer up,” promising a host of inquests into alleged corruption and influence peddling.

Yes, there will be lots of attention on Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed, D-Mich., and DSA-affiliated members coming to Washington like Reps.-elect Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez of New York, Melat Kiros of Colorado, Donavan McKinney of Michigan and Chris Rabb of Pennsylvania. They will push “Medicare for All” and efforts to defund ICE and will oppose money and aid to Israel.

But how much of that truly gets across the finish line?

While Democrats made extraordinary gains in both the House and Senate, they did so with moderates. Newly minted House Democrats who flipped solid GOP turf are the true majority-makers, not progressives. So while hard-left Democrats might pitch bills to pack the Supreme Court or convert Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico into states, the pathways for those measures are challenging. Democrats, regardless of where they reside on the political spectrum, won on a message of affordability. Democrats must show they can move the meter on gas prices and the cost of groceries.

AMERICA SAW THE BLUE WAVE COMING — BUT DRASTICALLY UNDERESTIMATED THE EXTENT OF THE DEM TSUNAMI

The U.S. Capitol, on Dec.12, 2024. (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

Rep.-elect Don Leonard, a Democrat, upset Republican Rep. Mike Carey in central Ohio. Rep.-elect Rebecca Cooke, D-Wis., defeated Republican Derrick Van Orden. Rep.-elect Christina Bohannan, D-Iowa, defeated Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Rep.-elect Fred Wellman, D-Mo., unexpectedly toppled Rep. Ann Wagner. Democrats are just renting these districts for now. They will be in play again in 2028. However, for the first time in years, Democrats have seriously encroached into Republican turf in the Midwest and the South.

That phenomenon is emphasized even more so by the victories of Sens.-elect Adam Hamilton of Kansas, Josh Turek of Iowa and Annie Andrews of South Carolina. These moderates didn’t get there by tying themselves to the Left. They can’t support some of the more extreme themes propounded by progressives and the DSA. So it’s doubtful those left-wing ideas go anywhere.

That sets the table for a schism between moderates and progressives and could spark an internecine firestorm inside the Democratic Party.

This is also about the math.

It’s possible that Democrats land more than 240 House seats and build on their current 54 seats.

Let’s say the House and Senate do pass some legislation which President Trump promises to veto. If the legislation is semi-bipartisan, it would only take about 50 House Republicans to join in with Democrats to meet the two-thirds threshold of 290 votes to override a veto. In the Senate, 67 votes are necessary to override. It may be a little tougher to cobble together the votes of 13 Republicans to join Democrats. Trump will always have his allies on Capitol Hill, but Republicans in both bodies may veer away from him based on Tuesday night’s rout.

The next measure of Trump’s political influence among congressional Republicans comes early next week. House Republicans must decide who leads their conference in the minority. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is signaling he won’t run for minority leader, while sources tell Fox News Digital that Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., plans to announce a run for minority leader, with Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, also seeking the role.

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., is signaling he intends to run again as whip.

It’s not unprecedented for a House speaker to accept a demotion to minority leader. House Speaker Joe Martin, R-Mass., was minority leader in the 1940s and 1950s, then speaker, then back to minority leader. House Speaker Sam Rayburn, D-Texas, was minority leader in the 1940s, then speaker, then minority leader, then back to speaker. And, like Rayburn toggling back and forth, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., was minority leader, then speaker, then minority leader, then speaker again.

REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK: A DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY COULD EXPOSE THE LIMITS OF THE PROGRESSIVE AGENDA

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., praises President Donald Trump’s policies and agenda ahead of his State of the Union speech, during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

Jordan’s pitch for minority leader is simple. He tangled with the Democrats during the first impeachment of President Trump in 2019 and 2020 and during the Biden administration. It’s unclear what Democrats will be able to approve legislatively with their new majority, but Democrats have promised scorched-Earth investigations of the Trump administration: inquests into family members; questions about crypto; alleged pay-to-play schemes with donors, friends of the Trump family and business; investigations into Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Republicans predict it will be brutal.

The question is the mood of the House Republican Conference. After such a loss, do they want to lean on the same team that got them to this point?

Jordan and Scalise are both tight with Trump.

Jordan has been running for years. He’s crisscrossed the country, raising money for candidates, campaigning for Republicans and burnishing his image among rank-and-file GOPers after Republicans ditched Jordan as their nominee for speaker when he lost two votes on the floor in October 2023.

The question is: Whom does Trump want in that job? And, more importantly, does that even matter anymore to rank-and-file Republicans after Tuesday night’s debacle? Will Republicans move to change course? That’s the most significant metric to test the president’s authority in the near term.

Back to the issue of the president wanting to make deals. He may need to make some soon, especially with Republicans while they still control the House and Senate. Government funding evaporates on Dec. 11. That could trigger a shutdown. Keep in mind that Democrats will be in no mood to deal since they will control the keys to the congressional car early next year. And, remember the progressives and DSA members? They’re not even in office yet. But they certainly don’t want to see House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., cutting deals with Republicans in the lame duck when they are on the verge of commanding Congress next year.

Another big issue which is lurking: FISA. Congressional authorization for FISA Section 702 expired in the spring. The program has continued – without congressional blessing. But, the intelligence services have warned Congress that reauthorization is necessary later this month before the spy program starts to be in trouble. Telecom companies have been willing to provide the intelligence services information without congressional approval for months, but that goodwill could soon dissipate.

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And what does Congress accomplish in the lame duck? Unclear. It was thought that attendance would be a major problem anyway, considering how many lawmakers were retiring. Even more will check out now after Democrats skunked the GOP Tuesday night.